Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes São Bernardo the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Ponte Preta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo?
São Bernardo starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,834 vs 1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponte Preta have 0 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats; São Bernardo have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Avai(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 0-6 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Botafogo SP(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 3-4 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Ponte Preta win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 São Bernardo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | São Bernardo 3-0 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Ponte Preta 0-1 São Bernardo | Paulista - A1 |
| Jul 12, 2025 | São Bernardo 2-0 Ponte Preta | Serie C |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Ponte Preta 3-3 São Bernardo | Paulista - A1 |
| Feb 5, 2022 | São Bernardo 2-0 Ponte Preta | Paulista - A1 |
Last archived meeting: São Bernardo vs Ponte Preta on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponte Preta score 0.6 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; São Bernardo score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| São Bernardo | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponte Preta sit 20th in Serie B (10 points from 24 matches) and São Bernardo sit 13th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | São Bernardo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 32 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 50 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo?
- The Footlab model makes São Bernardo the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Ponte Preta.
- Where and when is Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo played?
- Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo is played on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.