Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fleetwood Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Port Vale (1,786) and Fleetwood Town (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Port Vale win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | Port Vale 1-0 Fleetwood Town | FA Cup |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Port Vale 3-3 Fleetwood Town | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Fleetwood Town 1-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Port Vale 3-1 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Port Vale 2-2 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Fleetwood Town 3-0 Port Vale | League One |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town on Jan 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 20th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fleetwood Town.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town played?
- Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.