Rochdale vs Chesterfield: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rochdale wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,481 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Chesterfield?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Rochdale (1,766) and Chesterfield (1,787).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rochdale vs Chesterfield
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rochdale
4-2-3-1- 39D. Brown
- 45G. Middleton
- 8H. Gilmour
- 17B. Adeeko
- 7C. Hayes
- 14E. Francis
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 44A. Flint
- 2C. Tasker
- 26S. Sherring
- 20Sam William John Waller
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1- 10L. Bonis
- 20G. McEachran
- 24D. Markanday
- 37J. Koroma
- 18L. Marsh
- 4T. Naylor
- 6J. Simpson
- 33R. Hutton
- 15A. Pond
- 46T. Pearce
- 1Z. Hemming
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 06:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Chesterfield have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 1-4 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 2-4 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 0-5 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 5-1 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rochdale wins, 1 draw, 3 Chesterfield wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | Chesterfield 2-2 Rochdale | National League |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Rochdale 1-2 Chesterfield | National League |
| Nov 7, 2020 | Rochdale 1-2 Chesterfield | FA Cup |
| Mar 25, 2017 | Chesterfield 1-3 Rochdale | League One |
| Dec 26, 2016 | Rochdale 3-0 Chesterfield | League One |
| Dec 6, 2016 | Rochdale 0-2 Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Rochdale on Feb 24, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Chesterfield score 2.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Chesterfield | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 20th in League Two (15 points from 14 matches) and Chesterfield sit 10th (19 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
A question about Rochdale vs Chesterfield?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Chesterfield?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Chesterfield played?
- Rochdale vs Chesterfield is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.