Crewe vs Oldham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Crewe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Oldham?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Crewe (1,780) and Oldham (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Oldham have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Crewe win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Oldham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Crewe 2-1 Oldham | League Two |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Oldham 0-0 Crewe | League Two |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Oldham 2-1 Crewe | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Crewe 2-1 Oldham | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Oldham 1-2 Crewe | League Two |
| Feb 16, 2019 | Oldham 1-1 Crewe | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oldham score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Oldham | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 2nd in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and Oldham sit 12th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Oldham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Oldham?
- The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Crewe.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Oldham played?
- Crewe vs Oldham is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.