Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The Traeth Stadium, Porthmadog, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Bangor 1876. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876?
Bangor 1876 starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,611 vs 1,504).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Porthmadog have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Bangor 1876 have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rhyl(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llanuwchllyn(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bala Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-5 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Porthmadog win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bangor 1876 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2024 | Bangor 1876 4-1 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Porthmadog 0-4 Bangor 1876 | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Bangor 1876 vs Porthmadog on Jan 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Porthmadog score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bangor 1876 score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porthmadog | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Bangor 1876 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Porthmadog sit 2nd in FAW Championship (10 points from 4 matches) and Bangor 1876 sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Bangor 1876 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876?
- The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Bangor 1876.
- Where and when is Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876 played?
- Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876 is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The Traeth Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.