Portsmouth vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 34Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fratton Park, Portsmouth
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Portsmouth. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,039 vs 1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portsmouth have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | QPR(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SV Darmstadt 98(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Portsmouth win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Southampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Portsmouth 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Southampton 0-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Sep 24, 2019 | Portsmouth 0-4 Southampton | League Cup |
| Apr 7, 2012 | Southampton 2-2 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Dec 18, 2011 | Portsmouth 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Portsmouth vs Southampton on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portsmouth score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portsmouth sit 10th in Championship (3 points from 2 matches) and Southampton sit 24th (-1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Southampton?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Portsmouth.
- Where and when is Portsmouth vs Southampton played?
- Portsmouth vs Southampton is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fratton Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.