Stoke City vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,453 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,049 vs 1,867).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stoke City vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stoke City
3-4-3- 7J. McGlynn
- 13J. Devenny
- 9R. Boženík
- 2B. Johnson
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 21L. Bombino
- 8E. Galbraith
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 18B. Lawal
- 1V. Johansson
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 11L. Dobbin
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 10F. Azaz
- 27K. Matsuki
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Southampton have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Derby(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | QPR(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stoke City wins, 0 draws, 4 Southampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton 3-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Stoke City 0-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Southampton 1-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Southampton 3-2 Stoke City | League Cup |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Southampton 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Stoke City 0-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Stoke City on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 3rd in Championship (26 points from 14 matches) and Southampton sit 6th (24 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 24 |
A question about Stoke City vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Southampton played?
- Stoke City vs Southampton is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.