Southampton vs Portsmouth: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Portsmouth. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,925).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southampton vs Portsmouth
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 27K. Matsuki
- 14J. Bree
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 3R. Manning
- 15N. Wood-Gordon
- 1Daniel Peretz
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1- 9C. Bishop
- 10A. Segecic
- 11A. Kamara
- 7M. Pack
- 19R. Shein
- 17T. Shade
- 6C. Shaughnessy
- 16J. Meghoma
- 24T. Devlin
- 22Z. Swanson
- 31D. Bielica
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 01:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Portsmouth have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Southampton win, 4 draws, 0 Portsmouth wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Portsmouth 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Southampton 0-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Sep 24, 2019 | Portsmouth 0-4 Southampton | League Cup |
| Apr 7, 2012 | Southampton 2-2 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Dec 18, 2011 | Portsmouth 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Portsmouth vs Southampton on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Portsmouth score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Portsmouth | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 13th in Championship (10 points from 8 matches) and Portsmouth sit 19th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Portsmouth?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Portsmouth.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Portsmouth played?
- Southampton vs Portsmouth is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.