Where and when is Portugalete vs Gernika played?

Portugalete vs Gernika is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Florida, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Portugalete vs Gernika: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Florida, Portugalete

Portugalete

Gernika

The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Portugalete vs Gernika?

Portugalete starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,942 vs 1,837).

Portugalete win53 %

Draw26 %

Gernika win21 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portugalete have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Portugalete
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Barakaldo(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 9, 2026	Deportivo Alavés III(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
May 3, 2026	Aurrerá Vitoria(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 25, 2026	Leioa(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 17, 2026	Eibar III(home)	4-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Portugalete win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gernika win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2022	Gernika 2-1 Portugalete	Friendlies Clubs
Dec 1, 2019	Portugalete 1-0 Gernika	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Gernika vs Portugalete on Aug 24, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

Portugalete score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Portugalete	1.8	0.9	7	8/15	8/15
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Portugalete vs Gernika?: The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Gernika.
Where and when is Portugalete vs Gernika played?: Portugalete vs Gernika is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Florida, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.