Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Malecón, Torrelavega
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Ourense CF. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Gimnástica Torrelavega (1,974) and Ourense CF (1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Ourense CF have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | CF Talavera(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 2-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Gimnástica Torrelavega win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ourense CF win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 Ourense CF | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Ourense CF 2-1 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 Ourense CF | Copa Federacion |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-0 Ourense CF | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Ourense CF 1-2 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF on Mar 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ourense CF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Ourense CF.
- Where and when is Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF played?
- Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Malecón, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.