Gernika vs Basconia: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo
The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Basconia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gernika wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gernika vs Basconia?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Gernika (1,883) and Basconia (1,965).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gernika vs Basconia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Basconia
Not enough data to predict the Basconia lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:24 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Basconia have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eibar II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arosa(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Gernika win, 2 draws, 1 Basconia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Basconia 0-0 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Gernika 1-0 Basconia | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 8, 2020 | Basconia 2-2 Gernika | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 13, 2019 | Gernika 0-1 Basconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gernika score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Basconia score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Basconia | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gernika sit 8th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 6 matches) and Basconia sit 9th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gernika | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Basconia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
A question about Gernika vs Basconia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Basconia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Basconia.
- Where and when is Gernika vs Basconia played?
- Gernika vs Basconia is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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