Pro Patria vs Castellanzese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab AI model makes Pro Patria the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pro Patria wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,600 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Pro Patria (1,726) and Castellanzese (1,761).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pro Patria
4-3-3- 10F. Mastroianni
- 25D. Ferri
- 70J. Desogus
- 17G. Tunjov
- 23J. Frosali
- 27L. Giudici
- 6A. Sassaro
- 39M. Motolese
- 20C. Mora
- 31G. Felicioli
- 28A. Sala
Castellanzese
Not enough data to predict the Castellanzese lineup.
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 04:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Castellanzese have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 5-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Crema(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellanzese score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Castellanzese | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pro Patria sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone D (19 points from 8 matches) and Castellanzese sit 3rd (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
A question about Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pro Patria the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Castellanzese played?
- Pro Patria vs Castellanzese is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.