Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs US Ben Guerdane: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier, Sakiet Eddaïer
The Footlab model makes Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer the favourite at 52%, against 31% for a draw and 17% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs US Ben Guerdane?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1,826) and US Ben Guerdane (1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; US Ben Guerdane have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | ES Hammam-Sousse(away) | 3-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 21, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| May 12, 2026 | Redeyef(home) | 5-0 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Stade Gabesien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Stade Tunisien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score 2.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; US Ben Guerdane score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 2.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| US Ben Guerdane | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs US Ben Guerdane?
- The Footlab model makes Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer the favourite at 52%, against 31% for a draw and 17% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs US Ben Guerdane played?
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs US Ben Guerdane is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.