Progresso vs Lucchese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab AI model makes Lucchese the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lucchese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs Lucchese?
Lucchese starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,571).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Progresso vs Lucchese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Lucchese
4-3-3- 9S. Magnaghi
- 70E. Saporiti
- 10A. Selvini
- 21E. Visconti
- 27R. Gucher
- 96G. Galli
- 5S. Benedetti
- 29E. Antoni
- 30A. Gemignani
- 3N. Rizzo
- 59R. Melgrati
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Lucchese have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ternana(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Grassina(away) | 6-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Progresso wins, 0 draws, 1 Lucchese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese 5-0 Progresso | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Lucchese vs Progresso on Sep 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lucchese score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lucchese | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progresso sit 16th in Serie D - Girone E (3 points from 6 matches) and Lucchese sit 3rd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucchese | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 13 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Progresso vs Lucchese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Lucchese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lucchese the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Progresso.
- Where and when is Progresso vs Lucchese played?
- Progresso vs Lucchese is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 17, 2027TernanavsMezzolara
- Jan 17, 2027Robur SienavsTau Altopascio
- Jan 17, 2027Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanovsGavorrano
- Jan 17, 2027Sasso Marconi ZolavsFlaminia
- Jan 17, 2027GrassinavsPrato
- Jan 17, 2027Montevarchi CalciovsSeravezza
- Jan 17, 2027San Donato TavarnellevsTerranuova Traiana
- Jan 17, 2027RondinellavsScandicci