Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab AI model makes Progresso the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Progresso wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Progresso (1,613) and Montevarchi Calcio (1,669).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Montevarchi Calcio
Not enough data to predict the Montevarchi Calcio lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rondinella(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ternana(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Progresso(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Progresso wins, 0 draws, 1 Montevarchi Calcio win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio 2-0 Progresso | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso on Sep 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progresso sit 16th in Serie D - Girone E (3 points from 6 matches) and Montevarchi Calcio sit 12th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Progresso the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Montevarchi Calcio.
- Where and when is Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio played?
- Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 31, 2027TernanavsScandicci
- Jan 31, 2027Robur SienavsLucchese
- Jan 31, 2027Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanovsPrato
- Jan 31, 2027Sasso Marconi ZolavsGavorrano
- Jan 31, 2027GrassinavsMezzolara
- Jan 31, 2027San Donato TavarnellevsFlaminia
- Jan 31, 2027Terranuova TraianavsSeravezza
- Jan 31, 2027RondinellavsTau Altopascio