Where and when is Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio played?

Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore

Progresso

Montevarchi Calcio

The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Progresso (1,681) and Montevarchi Calcio (1,692).

Progresso win41 %

Draw30 %

Montevarchi Calcio win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 5, 9 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Progresso
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Sasso Marconi Zola(home)	4-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 26, 2026	Sant'Angelo(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 19, 2026	Lentigione(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 12, 2026	Correggese(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 2, 2026	Tuttocuoio(away)	2-0	Serie D - Girone D

Montevarchi Calcio
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Figline(home)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Prato(away)	0-1	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 26, 2026	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home)	1-0	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 19, 2026	Robur Siena(away)	0-0	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 12, 2026	Terranuova Traiana(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone E

How many goals should we expect?

Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Progresso	1.0	1.3	3	7/15	6/15
Montevarchi Calcio	0.7	0.3	10	4/15	0/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Montevarchi Calcio	34	10	16	8	28	32	46

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio?: The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Montevarchi Calcio.
Where and when is Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio played?: Progresso vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.