Where and when is Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso played?

Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, in the Serie D - Girone E.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, Montevarchi

Montevarchi Calcio

Progresso

The Footlab model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Montevarchi Calcio (1,693) and Progresso (1,682).

Montevarchi Calcio win43 %

Draw30 %

Progresso win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montevarchi Calcio have 5 wins, 9 draws and 1 defeats; Progresso have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Montevarchi Calcio
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Figline(home)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Prato(away)	0-1	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 26, 2026	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home)	1-0	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 19, 2026	Robur Siena(away)	0-0	Serie D - Girone E
Apr 12, 2026	Terranuova Traiana(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone E

Progresso
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Sasso Marconi Zola(home)	4-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 26, 2026	Sant'Angelo(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 19, 2026	Lentigione(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 12, 2026	Correggese(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 2, 2026	Tuttocuoio(away)	2-0	Serie D - Girone D

How many goals should we expect?

Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Montevarchi Calcio	0.7	0.3	10	4/15	0/15
Progresso	1.0	1.3	3	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Montevarchi Calcio	34	10	16	8	28	32	46

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?: The Footlab model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Progresso.
Where and when is Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso played?: Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.