Puebla vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Puebla. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puebla vs Toluca?
Toluca is a heavy favourite: 2,056 Elo points against 1,734 — a 323-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puebla have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Toluca have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 2-5 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Puebla win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Puebla 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Toluca 3-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Puebla 0-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Toluca 5-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Puebla 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Toluca 0-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Puebla score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puebla sit 11th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puebla vs Toluca?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Puebla vs Toluca played?
- Puebla vs Toluca is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.