Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano: prediction and stats
Primera CRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos, Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Puerto Nuevo. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Puerto Nuevo (1,508) and Lugano (1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puerto Nuevo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lugano have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Defensores de Cambaceres(home) | 0-2 | Primera C |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Yupanqui(home) | 2-2 | Primera C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventud Unida(away) | 1-1 | Primera C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sacachispas(home) | 1-0 | Primera C |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Argentino Rosario(away) | 0-0 | Primera C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leandro N. Alem(away) | 1-0 | Primera C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lujan(home) | 1-2 | Primera C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Victoriano Arenas(home) | 0-0 | Primera C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Defensores de Cambaceres(away) | 2-1 | Primera C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Centro Español(home) | 1-0 | Primera C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Puerto Nuevo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lugano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Lugano 3-0 Puerto Nuevo | Primera C |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Lugano 1-0 Puerto Nuevo | Primera C |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Puerto Nuevo 1-0 Lugano | Primera C |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Puerto Nuevo 0-0 Lugano | Primera C |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Lugano 0-4 Puerto Nuevo | Primera C |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Lugano 3-2 Puerto Nuevo | Primera D |
Last archived meeting: Lugano vs Puerto Nuevo on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Puerto Nuevo score 0.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugano score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto Nuevo | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Lugano | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puerto Nuevo sit 8th in Primera C (35 points from 25 matches) and Lugano sit 2nd (39 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lugano | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 22 | 39 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano?
- The Footlab model makes Lugano the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Puerto Nuevo.
- Where and when is Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano played?
- Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Rubén Carlos Vallejos, in the Primera C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Sep 5, 2026Atletico AtlasvsGeneral Lamadrid
- Sep 5, 2026CanuelasvsLujan
- Sep 5, 2026Victoriano ArenasvsArgentino Rosario
- Sep 5, 2026JJ UrquizavsJuventud Unida
- Sep 5, 2026Deportivo EspañolvsFénix
- Sep 5, 2026BerazateguivsEstrella Del Sur
- Sep 5, 2026Centro EspañolvsSacachispas