Rathfriland vs Ards: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Iveagh Park, Rathfriland
The Footlab AI model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Ards. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rathfriland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,382 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rathfriland vs Ards?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Rathfriland (1,357) and Ards (1,394).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rathfriland vs Ards
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rathfriland
4-3-3- RRuairi Fitzpatrick
- EE. Rooney
- DD. Tate
- AAndrew Kilmartin
- 23J. Corbett
- MMaurice Jack Chambers
- JJ. Barbour
- DDaniel Devlin
- JJ. Cooper
- BB. Johnston
- SS. Maguire
Ards
Not enough data to predict the Ards lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rathfriland have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Ards have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Queen's University(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ards(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rathfriland(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Rathfriland wins, 0 draws, 1 Ards win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ards 1-0 Rathfriland | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Rathfriland score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ards score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rathfriland | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ards | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rathfriland sit 15th in Championship (6 points from 10 matches) and Ards sit 8th (52 points from 38 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ArdsChampionship 1: Relegation Group | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 15 | RathfrilandChampionship 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
A question about Rathfriland vs Ards?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rathfriland vs Ards?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Ards.
- Where and when is Rathfriland vs Ards played?
- Rathfriland vs Ards is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Iveagh Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.