Rathfriland vs Ballinamallard United: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 28Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Iveagh Park, Rathfriland
The Footlab model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Ballinamallard United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rathfriland vs Ballinamallard United?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Rathfriland (1,305) and Ballinamallard United (1,211).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rathfriland have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Ballinamallard United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| May 1, 2026 | Knockbreda(away) | 4-0 | Premier Intermediate League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Institute(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Rathfriland score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ballinamallard United score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rathfriland | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Ballinamallard United | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rathfriland sit 16th in Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Ballinamallard United sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 34 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rathfriland vs Ballinamallard United?
- The Footlab model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Ballinamallard United.
- Where and when is Rathfriland vs Ballinamallard United played?
- Rathfriland vs Ballinamallard United is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Iveagh Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.