RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 7Kick-off on January 20, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Shakhtar Donetsk. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,128 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
On Elo ratings, RB Leipzig has 2,213 points and Shakhtar Donetsk 2,199.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
RB Leipzig
4-2-3-1- 40Rômulo
- 7A. Nusa
- 21N. El Aynaoui
- 28C. Nkunku
- 10B. Gruda
- 13N. Seiwald
- 4W. Orbán
- 22D. Raum
- 23C. Lukeba
- 17R. Baku
- 26M. Vandevoordt
Shakhtar Donetsk
4-1-4-1- 9Kauã Elias
- 6Marlon Gomes
- 30Alisson Santana
- 10Pedrinho
- 27O. Ocheretko
- 77G. Mendoza
- 17Vinícius Tobias
- 5V. Bondar
- 22M. Matvienko
- 13Pedrinho
- 31D. Riznyk
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 01:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Shakhtar Donetsk have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-6 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 6-0 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Veres Rivne(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 RB Leipzig win, 0 draws, 1 Shakhtar Donetsk win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2022 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0-4 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2022 | RB Leipzig 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Shakhtar Donetsk vs RB Leipzig on Nov 2, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 2.2 | 1.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
RB Leipzig sit 30th in UEFA Champions League (3 points from 3 matches) and Shakhtar Donetsk sit 17th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
A question about RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
- RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk is played on January 20, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.