Réal Bamako vs Vitesse: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta, Bamako
The Footlab model makes Réal Bamako the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 11% for Vitesse. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Réal Bamako vs Vitesse?
Réal Bamako starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,732 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Réal Bamako have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Vitesse have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | US Bougouba(home) | 4-0 | Première Division |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Djoliba(away) | 1-0 | Première Division |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Afrique Football Élite(home) | 0-0 | Première Division |
| May 31, 2026 | ASKO(away) | 0-1 | Première Division |
| May 25, 2026 | Derby Academie(home) | 1-0 | Première Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rahimo(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | CFFEB(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Salitas(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Réal du Faso(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Douanes(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Réal Bamako score 1.2 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Vitesse score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Réal Bamako | 1.2 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Vitesse | 1.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Réal Bamako vs Vitesse?
- The Footlab model makes Réal Bamako the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 11% for Vitesse.
- Where and when is Réal Bamako vs Vitesse played?
- Réal Bamako vs Vitesse is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.