Real Madrid III vs Deportivo Alavés II: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés II the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Real Madrid III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid III vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Deportivo Alavés II starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,992 vs 1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid III have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Deportivo Alavés II have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Estepona(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Real Jaén(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Gernika(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tudelano(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ejea(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid III score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Alavés II score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid III | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Deportivo Alavés II | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid III vs Deportivo Alavés II?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés II the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Real Madrid III.
- Where and when is Real Madrid III vs Deportivo Alavés II played?
- Real Madrid III vs Deportivo Alavés II is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.