Match

Real Madrid III vs Numancia: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 · Matchday 12Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, Madrid

Real Madrid IIINumancia

The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Real Madrid III. The most likely score is 1-1. If Numancia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 5,794 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Madrid III vs Numancia?

Numancia starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,952 vs 1,834).

34%28%38%
Real Madrid III winDrawNumancia win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Real Madrid III vs Numancia

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Real Madrid III

Not enough data to predict the Real Madrid III lineup.

Numancia

4-4-2
  1. 18Pablo Cortés
  2. 9Jony González
  1. 14César Moreno
  2. 17Aitor Aranzabe
  3. 6Luis Roldán
  4. 19I. Leon
  1. 23Borja López
  2. 4Pelayo Suárez
  3. 5Fran González
  4. 27S. Flores
  1. 13G. Sunico

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 01:36 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid III have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Numancia have 7, 5 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Madrid III
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Real Valladolid II(home)3-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Nov 1, 2026Real Ávila(away)1-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 25, 2026Conquense(home)0-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 18, 2026RSD Alcalá(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 11, 2026Atlético Tordesillas(home)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Numancia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Calvo Sotelo(home)6-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Nov 1, 2026Atlético Tordesillas(away)2-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 29, 2026Oviedo(home)3-3Copa del Rey
Oct 24, 2026Navalcarnero(home)2-3Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 18, 2026CF Talavera(home)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

How many goals should we expect?

Real Madrid III score 0.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Numancia score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Real Madrid III0.70.883/153/15
Numancia1.50.886/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Madrid III sit 11th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (11 points from 10 matches) and Numancia sit 1st (19 points from 10 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Numancia1054116519
11Real Madrid III102535611

A question about Real Madrid III vs Numancia?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Madrid III vs Numancia?
The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Real Madrid III.
Where and when is Real Madrid III vs Numancia played?
Real Madrid III vs Numancia is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Real Madrid III and Numancia