Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Villarreal wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,805 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?
On Elo ratings, Villarreal has 2,176 points and Rayo Vallecano 2,115.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 18P. Gueye
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 3A. Freeman
- 8J. Foyth
- 12Renato Veiga
- 25P. Gulácsi
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Elche(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Villarreal wins, 2 draws, 1 Rayo Vallecano win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Villarreal 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 12th in La Liga (9 points from 9 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 14th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.