Osasuna vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Villarreal starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (2,172 vs 2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Villarreal have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Osasuna win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Villarreal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Villarreal 2-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Villarreal 4-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Osasuna 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Villarreal 3-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Osasuna vs Villarreal on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Villarreal played?
- Osasuna vs Villarreal is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.