Villarreal vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 243-point Elo edge (2,395 vs 2,152).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 7Gerard Moreno
- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 16C. Macia
- 17T. Buchanan
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 15S. Mouriño
- 12Renato Veiga
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 6Pau Navarro
- 25P. Gulácsi
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 5J. Bellingham
- 25Y. Diomande
- 20Bernardo Silva
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 16I. Konaté
- 4Dean Huijsen
- 8F. Valverde
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 01:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Real Madrid have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 0-6 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 5-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Villarreal wins, 1 draw, 5 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Villarreal 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Villarreal on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 9th in La Liga (12 points from 11 matches) and Real Madrid sit 3rd (27 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 10 | 27 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
A question about Villarreal vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Real Madrid played?
- Villarreal vs Real Madrid is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.