Valencia vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Valencia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Madrid wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (2,352 vs 2,063).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valencia vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valencia
5-4-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 8Javi Guerra
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 19Dani Raba
- 18Pepelu
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 12J. de Haas
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real Madrid have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win, 1 draw, 4 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Real Madrid on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 19th in La Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Real Madrid sit 4th (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
A question about Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Real Madrid played?
- Valencia vs Real Madrid is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.