Recanatese vs Ancona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Recanatese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Recanatese vs Ancona?
Ancona starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recanatese have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Ancona have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sora(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Maceratese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Aquila(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sammaurese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Recanatese win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Ancona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Recanatese 2-4 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Ancona 2-0 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Recanatese 3-2 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Ancona 1-0 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Recanatese 1-3 Ancona | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Recanatese 2-0 Ancona | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Recanatese score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ancona score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recanatese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Ancona | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Recanatese sit 15th in Serie D - Girone F (32 points from 34 matches) and Ancona sit 2nd (76 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59 | 22 | 76 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 57 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Recanatese vs Ancona?
- The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Recanatese.
- Where and when is Recanatese vs Ancona played?
- Recanatese vs Ancona is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Dec 13, 2026Real GiulianovavsSporting Trestina
- Dec 13, 2026NotarescovsAtletico Ascoli
- Dec 13, 2026L'AquilavsVigor Senigallia
- Dec 13, 2026AngelanavsFossombrone
- Dec 13, 2026Montecchio GallovsTeramo
- Dec 13, 2026PietralungavsLanciano FC