Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 25Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Recoleta, Recoleta
The Footlab model makes Recoleta the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for San Marcos de Arica. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Recoleta (1,617) and San Marcos de Arica (1,631).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recoleta have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; San Marcos de Arica have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportes Copiapo(home) | 2-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportes Temuco(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 4-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Union San Felipe(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | D. Puerto Montt(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Recoleta win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 San Marcos de Arica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | San Marcos de Arica 1-0 Recoleta | Primera B |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Recoleta 0-0 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| May 4, 2025 | San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Recoleta | Primera B |
| Aug 18, 2024 | San Marcos de Arica 2-1 Recoleta | Primera B |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Recoleta 1-2 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2023 | San Marcos de Arica 3-2 Recoleta | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta on May 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Recoleta score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Marcos de Arica score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recoleta | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| San Marcos de Arica | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Recoleta sit 9th in Primera B (30 points from 21 matches) and San Marcos de Arica sit 8th (30 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 9 | Recoleta | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica?
- The Footlab model makes Recoleta the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for San Marcos de Arica.
- Where and when is Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica played?
- Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Recoleta, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.