San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Carlos Dittborn, Arica
The Footlab model makes San Marcos de Arica the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Curico Unido. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate San Marcos de Arica (1,633) and Curico Unido (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marcos de Arica have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Curico Unido have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportes Copiapo(away) | 0-4 | Primera B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Deportes Santa Cruz(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 3-1 | Copa Chile |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 San Marcos de Arica win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Curico Unido win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Curico Unido 2-2 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Curico Unido 5-3 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Feb 25, 2025 | San Marcos de Arica 1-2 Curico Unido | Primera B |
| Aug 1, 2024 | San Marcos de Arica 2-3 Curico Unido | Primera B |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Curico Unido 1-0 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Marcos de Arica score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Curico Unido score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos de Arica | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Curico Unido | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Marcos de Arica sit 8th in Primera B (30 points from 21 matches) and Curico Unido sit 13th (23 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido?
- The Footlab model makes San Marcos de Arica the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Curico Unido.
- Where and when is San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido played?
- San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.