Rīgas FS vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Rīga (Riga)
The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,958 Elo points against 1,581, a 377-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rīgas FS vs Super Nova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1- 15R. Ndjiki
- 18D. Zelenkovs
- 26S. Panić
- 8L. Odisharia
- 66M. Saidy
- 10J. Ikaunieks
- 23H. Prenga
- 43Ž. Lipušček
- 99S. Kumater
- 6A. Filipović
- 1R. Matrevics
Super Nova
4-2-3-1- 10V. Lizunovs
- 9Bamba
- 8I. Patrikejevs
- 6E. Emsis
- 15R. Ķiršs
- 24R. Šitjakovs
- 25M. Ošs
- 5J. Cīrulis
- 3R. Iida
- 16K. Romanovs
- 90D. Veisbuks
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Auda(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Auda(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Rīgas FS wins, 0 draws, 0 Super Nova wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova 0-1 Rīgas FS | Cup |
| May 29, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rīgas FS 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Rīgas FS 5-2 Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Super Nova 1-3 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Rīgas FS 4-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs Rīgas FS on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Super Nova | 0.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS sit 1st in Virsliga (74 points from 30 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (35 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71 | 22 | 74 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 40 | 35 |
A question about Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS vs Super Nova played?
- Rīgas FS vs Super Nova is played on October 15, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.