Rīgas FS vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Rīga (Riga)
The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 88%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Tukums. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS vs Tukums?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,961 Elo points against 1,504, a 457-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rīgas FS vs Tukums
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1- 15R. Ndjiki
- 18D. Zelenkovs
- 26S. Panić
- 8L. Odisharia
- 66M. Saidy
- 10J. Ikaunieks
- 23H. Prenga
- 43Ž. Lipušček
- 6A. Filipović
- 99S. Kumater
- 1R. Matrevics
Tukums
3-5-2- 27R. Deružinskis
- 11Leoni Gastaldelo
- 10B. Samoilovs
- 5J. Toba
- 4Kaspars Anmanis
- 16Kristaps Klavins
- 17M. Derkach
- 6K. Volkovs
- 21D. Valmiers
- 8R. Reingolcs
- 12A. Kuprins
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Tukums have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 4-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Auda(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Rīgas FS wins, 0 draws, 0 Tukums wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Tukums 0-1 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| May 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS 3-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Tukums 1-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Tukums 2-4 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Rīgas FS 6-2 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 25, 2025 | Tukums 2-5 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Tukums | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS sit 1st in Virsliga (77 points from 31 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (24 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 31 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 77 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 63 | 24 |
A question about Rīgas FS vs Tukums?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS vs Tukums?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 88%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS vs Tukums played?
- Rīgas FS vs Tukums is played on October 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.