Rīgas FS vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Rīga (Riga)
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Tukums. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS vs Tukums?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,955 Elo points against 1,507 — a 448-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Tukums have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 6-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Rīgas FS win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tukums win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Tukums 0-1 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| May 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS 3-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Tukums 1-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Tukums 2-4 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Rīgas FS 6-2 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 25, 2025 | Tukums 2-5 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS sit 1st in Virsliga (66 points from 26 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (20 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 65 | 20 | 66 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS vs Tukums?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS vs Tukums played?
- Rīgas FS vs Tukums is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.