Riga vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab AI model makes Riga the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga vs Super Nova?
Riga is a heavy favourite: 2,037 Elo points against 1,589, a 449-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Riga vs Super Nova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Riga
4-2-3-1- 10Reginaldo Ramires
- 18S. Oulad M'Hand
- 40A. Ankrah
- 22M. Diop
- 8Iago Siqueira Augusto
- 99Caio
- 5K. Wassom
- 23M. Toņiševs
- 17A. Salazar
- 34A. Černomordijs
- 12K. Pirić
Super Nova
4-2-3-1- 10V. Lizunovs
- 8I. Patrikejevs
- 9Bamba
- 6E. Emsis
- 15R. Ķiršs
- 24R. Šitjakovs
- 25M. Ošs
- 5J. Cīrulis
- 3R. Iida
- 16K. Romanovs
- 90D. Veisbuks
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 03:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat; Super Nova have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aris(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Auda(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Riga wins, 0 draws, 0 Super Nova wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Super Nova 0-1 Riga | Virsliga |
| May 24, 2026 | Riga 3-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Super Nova 1-4 Riga | Virsliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Super Nova 2-6 Riga | Virsliga |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Riga 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| May 1, 2025 | Super Nova 1-5 Riga | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Riga score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Super Nova | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga sit 2nd in Virsliga (76 points from 32 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (38 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 30 | 76 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 41 | 38 |
A question about Riga vs Super Nova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Riga the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Riga vs Super Nova played?
- Riga vs Super Nova is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.