Riga vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga vs Super Nova?
Riga is a heavy favourite: 2,028 Elo points against 1,554 — a 475-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 4-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Riga win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Super Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Riga 3-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Super Nova 1-4 Riga | Virsliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Super Nova 2-6 Riga | Virsliga |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Riga 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| May 1, 2025 | Super Nova 1-5 Riga | Virsliga |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Riga 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Riga score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga sit 2nd in Virsliga (65 points from 26 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (28 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 79 | 24 | 65 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Riga vs Super Nova played?
- Riga vs Super Nova is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.