Maritimo vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maritimo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Maritimo (2,056) and Rio Ave (2,063).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 10Martín Tejón
- 8M. Dominguez
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 22G. Szalai
- 30Fran Vieites
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Rio Ave have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Maritimo wins, 2 draws, 1 Rio Ave win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2023 | Maritimo 2-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Rio Ave 1-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Maritimo 0-1 Rio Ave | Taça da Liga |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Maritimo 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2020 | Rio Ave 1-3 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2020 | Maritimo 2-1 Rio Ave | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 11th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Maritimo vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Rio Ave played?
- Maritimo vs Rio Ave is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.