Roda vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Roda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Roda vs Waalwijk?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Roda (1,731) and Waalwijk (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roda have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Waalwijk have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Roda win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Waalwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Waalwijk 1-1 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Roda 1-1 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Waalwijk 1-2 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Roda 1-4 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 23, 2021 | Roda 2-4 Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 5, 2019 | Roda 0-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Roda sit 6th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Waalwijk sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Roda vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Roda.
- Where and when is Roda vs Waalwijk played?
- Roda vs Waalwijk is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.