FC Orenburg vs Baltika: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gazovik, Rostoshi
The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for FC Orenburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Orenburg vs Baltika?
Baltika starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,974 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Orenburg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Baltika have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 1-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Orenburg win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Baltika win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | FC Orenburg 0-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Baltika 3-2 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Mar 10, 2024 | FC Orenburg 1-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Baltika 1-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Nov 6, 2021 | FC Orenburg 2-1 Baltika | First League |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Baltika 1-1 FC Orenburg | First League |
Last archived meeting: FC Orenburg vs Baltika on Nov 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Orenburg score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Baltika score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Baltika | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Orenburg sit 9th in Premier League (6 points from 5 matches) and Baltika sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Orenburg vs Baltika?
- The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for FC Orenburg.
- Where and when is FC Orenburg vs Baltika played?
- FC Orenburg vs Baltika is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gazovik, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.