Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Volgograd Arena, Volgograd
The Footlab model makes Rotor Volgograd the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Shinnik Yaroslavl. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Rotor Volgograd (1,842) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rotor Volgograd have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Shinnik Yaroslavl have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ural(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Chelyabinsk(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Veles(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rotor Volgograd win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Shinnik Yaroslavl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Rotor Volgograd 3-0 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-0 Rotor Volgograd | First League |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-1 Rotor Volgograd | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Rotor Volgograd 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 0-1 Rotor Volgograd | First League |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Rotor Volgograd 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Rotor Volgograd score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shinnik Yaroslavl score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotor Volgograd | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rotor Volgograd sit 10th in First League (10 points from 8 matches) and Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 6th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
- The Footlab model makes Rotor Volgograd the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Shinnik Yaroslavl.
- Where and when is Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl played?
- Rotor Volgograd vs Shinnik Yaroslavl is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Volgograd Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.