Where and when is RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero played?

RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, Alcalá de Henares

RSD Alcalá

Navalcarnero

The Footlab model makes RSD Alcalá the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Navalcarnero. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate RSD Alcalá (1,875) and Navalcarnero (1,859).

RSD Alcalá win49 %

Draw28 %

Navalcarnero win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RSD Alcalá have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Navalcarnero have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RSD Alcalá
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Gimnástica Segoviana(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	CD Coria(home)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Quintanar del Rey(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	Rayo Vallecano II(home)	3-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	Fuenlabrada(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Navalcarnero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Fuenlabrada(home)	3-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Colonia Moscardó(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	Conquense(home)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	CD Coria(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 5, 2026	Rayo Majadahonda(home)	2-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 RSD Alcalá win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Navalcarnero win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 22, 2026	RSD Alcalá 1-0 Navalcarnero	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Dec 7, 2025	Navalcarnero 3-1 RSD Alcalá	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Jan 12, 2020	Navalcarnero 0-1 RSD Alcalá	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Aug 25, 2019	RSD Alcalá 0-1 Navalcarnero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last archived meeting: RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

RSD Alcalá score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Navalcarnero score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
RSD Alcalá	1.5	0.9	6	7/15	9/15
Navalcarnero	1.3	1.5	3	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

RSD Alcalá sit 6th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (51 points from 34 matches) and Navalcarnero sit 10th (43 points from 34 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	RSD Alcalá	34	14	9	11	42	39	51
10	Navalcarnero	34	11	10	13	40	42	43

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero?: The Footlab model makes RSD Alcalá the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Navalcarnero.
Where and when is RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero played?: RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.