Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Avanhard, Yalta
The Footlab model makes Rubin Yalta the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Astrakhan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Rubin Yalta (1,675) and Astrakhan (1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rubin Yalta have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Astrakhan have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nart Cherkessk(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Izberbash(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angust Nazran(home) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rostov II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevastopol(away) | 4-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shahter Taganrog(away) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FK Chayka 2(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rubin Yalta win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Astrakhan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Astrakhan 0-0 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Astrakhan 2-1 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Rubin Yalta 0-1 Astrakhan | Second League - Group 1 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Astrakhan 0-1 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Astrakhan 0-1 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Rubin Yalta 0-2 Astrakhan | Second League - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Astrakhan vs Rubin Yalta on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rubin Yalta score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Astrakhan score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Yalta | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Astrakhan | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rubin Yalta sit 4th in Second League - Group 1 (31 points from 20 matches) and Astrakhan sit 10th (22 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 31 |
| 10 | Astrakhan | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan?
- The Footlab model makes Rubin Yalta the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Astrakhan.
- Where and when is Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan played?
- Rubin Yalta vs Astrakhan is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Avanhard, in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.