Kyzyltash vs Pobeda: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kyzyltash the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Pobeda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kyzyltash vs Pobeda?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Kyzyltash (1,578) and Pobeda (1,675).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kyzyltash have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Pobeda have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Druzhba(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(home) | 1-4 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Izberbash(away) | 6-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(home) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lugansk(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sevastopol(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Chayka 2(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shahter Taganrog(home) | 4-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Kyzyltash win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Pobeda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Pobeda 0-0 Kyzyltash | Second League - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Kyzyltash score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pobeda score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzyltash | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Pobeda | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kyzyltash sit 5th in Second League - Group 1 (31 points from 20 matches) and Pobeda sit 6th (30 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kyzyltash | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 27 | 31 |
| 6 | Pobeda | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 22 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kyzyltash vs Pobeda?
- The Footlab model makes Kyzyltash the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Pobeda.
- Where and when is Kyzyltash vs Pobeda played?
- Kyzyltash vs Pobeda is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.