Rustavi vs Samgurali: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Teknikuri Tsentri, Rustavi
The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Samgurali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rustavi vs Samgurali?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Rustavi (1,691) and Samgurali (1,619).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rustavi have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Samgurali have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 3-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Varketili(away) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 4-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | WIT Georgia(away) | 2-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rustavi win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Samgurali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Rustavi 1-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 22, 2020 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 2, 2020 | Rustavi 1-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Oct 1, 2017 | Rustavi 1-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 28, 2017 | Samgurali 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Rustavi score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Samgurali score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rustavi | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Samgurali | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rustavi sit 1st in Erovnuli Liga (41 points from 22 matches) and Samgurali sit 6th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 18 | 41 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rustavi vs Samgurali?
- The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Samgurali.
- Where and when is Rustavi vs Samgurali played?
- Rustavi vs Samgurali is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Teknikuri Tsentri, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.