Saburtalo vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saburtalo vs Gagra?
Saburtalo starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,776 vs 1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saburtalo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Gagra have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 3-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larne(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Saburtalo win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gagra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Saburtalo 1-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Saburtalo 2-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Gagra 1-3 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 29, 2025 | Saburtalo 3-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Gagra 0-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Saburtalo score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saburtalo sit 3rd in Erovnuli Liga (34 points from 20 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (24 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Saburtalo | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 34 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saburtalo vs Gagra?
- The Footlab model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Saburtalo vs Gagra played?
- Saburtalo vs Gagra is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.