Saburtalo vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
The Footlab AI model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Saburtalo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saburtalo vs Gagra?
Saburtalo starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (1,733 vs 1,560).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Saburtalo vs Gagra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Saburtalo
4-3-3- 9A. Dzagania
- 10Z. Natchkebia
- 17S. Ende
- 19N. Sikharulashvili
- 8B. Kardava
- 18Lucas Brune
- 5J. Jinjolava
- 25A. Amisulashvili
- 4V. Selimović
- 3P. Cancar
- 31G. Makaridze
Gagra
4-4-2- 30G. Goshteliani
- 23A. Andreychuk
- 25Wanderson
- 33L. Gurchiani
- 6M. Tsintsadze
- 8I. Skrypnyk
- 40Claudinei
- 14Z. Tchavtchanidze
- 2Augusto
- 7P. Borges
- 1O. Vorobey
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 08:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saburtalo have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Gagra have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 1-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Dila(home) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 1-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Samgurali(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Saburtalo wins, 0 draws, 1 Gagra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Gagra 2-0 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 20, 2026 | Saburtalo 1-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Saburtalo 2-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Gagra 1-3 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 29, 2025 | Saburtalo 3-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Saburtalo score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Gagra | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saburtalo sit 4th in Erovnuli Liga (49 points from 28 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (29 points from 29 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Saburtalo | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 31 | 49 |
| 8 | Gagra | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 43 | 29 |
A question about Saburtalo vs Gagra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saburtalo vs Gagra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Saburtalo the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Saburtalo vs Gagra played?
- Saburtalo vs Gagra is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.