Şahdağ vs Səbail: prediction and stats
Birinci DastaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Şövkət Orduxanov adına stadionu, Gusar
The Footlab AI model makes Səbail the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Şahdağ. The most likely score is 1-1. If Səbail wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Şahdağ vs Səbail?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Şahdağ (1,601) and Səbail (1,643).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Şahdağ vs Səbail
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Şahdağ
4-3-3- NNodar Məmmədov
- TTural Qürbətov
- RR. Mansurov
- RR. Əmirquliyev
- RR. Ağalarov
- ÆÆ. QarÉ™hmÉ™dov
- RRubin Seyidov
- RR. Hacıyev
- İİlyas Səfərzadə
- EElnur Şiriyev
- RRafiq Kərimov
Səbail
4-3-3- 14S. Allouch
- 22M. Abbasov
- 10David Gomis
- 96İ. Muradov
- 11R. Abdullazadə
- 83N. Quliyev
- 16Emin Rüstəmov
- 20M. Çelik
- 4Marko Nikolić
- 3D. Lytvyn
- 12Ə. Müştəfazadə
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Şahdağ have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Səbail have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Zaqatala(home) | 6-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Şimal(away) | 4-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Karvan(home) | 2-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 3, 2026 | MOIK(away) | 1-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 22, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(home) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Karvan(home) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(away) | 1-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Mingəçevir(home) | 2-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Xankəndi FK(away) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 22, 2026 | Mingəçevir(away) | 1-4 | Birinci Dasta |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Şahdağ wins, 2 draws, 3 Səbail wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Səbail 0-0 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Şahdağ 2-2 Səbail | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Səbail 2-0 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
| Mar 27, 2017 | Şahdağ 0-4 Səbail | Birinci Dasta |
| Nov 4, 2016 | Səbail 5-1 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
How many goals should we expect?
Şahdağ score 1.6 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Səbail score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şahdağ | 1.6 | 0.4 | 10 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Səbail | 2.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Şahdağ sit 1st in Birinci Dasta (12 points from 4 matches) and Səbail sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Səbail | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
A question about Şahdağ vs Səbail?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Şahdağ vs Səbail?
- The Footlab AI model makes Səbail the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Şahdağ.
- Where and when is Şahdağ vs Səbail played?
- Şahdağ vs Səbail is played on October 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Şövkət Orduxanov adına stadionu, in the Birinci Dasta.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.