San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Minnesota United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate San Jose Earthquakes (1,805) and Minnesota United FC (1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Jose Earthquakes have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Minnesota United FC have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Jose Earthquakes win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Minnesota United FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 1, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Minnesota United FC 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Minnesota United FC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Jose Earthquakes score 1.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Minnesota United FC score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Minnesota United FC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 20 matches) and Minnesota United FC sit 11th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 33 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | 25 |
Who is out?
6 reported absence(s) for this match.
- D. JonesSan Jose EarthquakesOut(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- E. EdwardsSan Jose EarthquakesDoubtful(Lower-Body Injury)
- N. AdimabuaSan Jose EarthquakesOut(Lower-Body Injury)
- N. RomeroMinnesota United FCDoubtful(Lower-Body Injury)
- N. TriantisMinnesota United FCDoubtful(Lower-Body Injury)
- P. StroudMinnesota United FCDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
- The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Minnesota United FC.
- Where and when is San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC played?
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC is played on August 23, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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