San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Carlos Dittborn, Arica
The Footlab model makes San Marcos de Arica the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for D. Puerto Montt. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate San Marcos de Arica (1,633) and D. Puerto Montt (1,708).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marcos de Arica have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; D. Puerto Montt have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportes Iquique(home) | 0-4 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Union Espanola(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportes Santa Cruz(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Recoleta(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 San Marcos de Arica win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 D. Puerto Montt win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | D. Puerto Montt 0-2 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Sep 24, 2023 | D. Puerto Montt 1-1 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| May 14, 2023 | San Marcos de Arica 2-0 D. Puerto Montt | Primera B |
| Oct 22, 2021 | San Marcos de Arica 1-2 D. Puerto Montt | Primera B |
| Jul 15, 2021 | D. Puerto Montt 2-2 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Dec 22, 2020 | San Marcos de Arica 0-0 D. Puerto Montt | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: D. Puerto Montt vs San Marcos de Arica on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Marcos de Arica score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; D. Puerto Montt score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos de Arica | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| D. Puerto Montt | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Marcos de Arica sit 8th in Primera B (30 points from 21 matches) and D. Puerto Montt sit 7th (31 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | D. Puerto Montt | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt?
- The Footlab model makes San Marcos de Arica the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for D. Puerto Montt.
- Where and when is San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt played?
- San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.