San Marino vs Finland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle
The Footlab model makes Finland the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for San Marino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marino vs Finland?
Finland is a heavy favourite: 1,474 Elo points against 1,053 — a 421-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marino have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Finland have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania(away) | 1-7 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 San Marino win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Finland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | San Marino 1-2 Finland | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Finland 6-0 San Marino | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: San Marino vs Finland on Nov 20, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
San Marino score 0.6 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; Finland score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 0.6 | 3.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Finland | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marino vs Finland?
- The Footlab model makes Finland the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for San Marino.
- Where and when is San Marino vs Finland played?
- San Marino vs Finland is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.