Finland vs San Marino: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague C - 6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Helsingin olympiastadion, Helsingfors
The Footlab AI model makes Finland the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for San Marino. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,250 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finland vs San Marino?
Finland is a heavy favourite: 1,475 Elo points against 1,042, a 434-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Finland vs San Marino
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Finland
4-3-3- 9A. Svanbäck
- 18T. Keskinen
- 20J. Pohjanpalo
- 10L. Walta
- 11A. Marhiev
- 14K. Kairinen
- 13J. Lähteenmäki
- 5S. Miettinen
- 4T. Miettinen
- 3A. Ståhl
- 1L. Hrádecký
San Marino
4-4-2- 11N. Giacopetti
- 9N. Nanni
- 8L. Capicchioni
- 21L. Lazzari
- 17A. Golinucci
- 19S. Pancotti
- 5M. Cevoli
- 3S. Giocondi
- 6D. Rossi
- 2G. Benvenuti
- 1E. Colombo
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 05:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finland have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; San Marino have 0, 1 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Albania(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Finland(home) | 0-7 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Finland wins, 0 draws, 0 San Marino wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino 0-7 Finland | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2023 | San Marino 1-2 Finland | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Finland 6-0 San Marino | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: San Marino vs Finland on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Finland score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Marino score 0.4 and concede 3.8. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| San Marino | 0.4 | 3.8 | 1 | 6/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finland sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (7 points from 4 matches) and San Marino sit 4th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
A question about Finland vs San Marino?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finland vs San Marino?
- The Footlab AI model makes Finland the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for San Marino.
- Where and when is Finland vs San Marino played?
- Finland vs San Marino is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Helsingin olympiastadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.