Armenia vs Latvia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Armenia the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Latvia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Armenia vs Latvia?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Armenia (1,346) and Latvia (1,310).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Armenia have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Latvia have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal(away) | 1-9 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Armenia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Latvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Latvia 1-2 Armenia | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Armenia 4-1 Latvia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Latvia 2-0 Armenia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Armenia 2-1 Latvia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Armenia score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Latvia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Armenia vs Latvia?
- The Footlab model makes Armenia the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Latvia.
- Where and when is Armenia vs Latvia played?
- Armenia vs Latvia is played on September 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.