Iceland vs Estonia: result 1-1 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague C - 1Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
Full time
What was the result of Iceland vs Estonia?
Iceland and Estonia drew 1-1 on September 26, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 45′A. GuðjohnsenIceland
- 64′M. PaskotšiEstonia
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Iceland win at 73%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 2-0. Actual score: 1-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Iceland vs Estonia
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Iceland
4-4-2- 9O. Óskarsson
- 22A. Guðjohnsen
- 11A. Guðmundsson
- 8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
- 7H. Haraldsson
- 20J. Þorsteinsson
- 19M. Ellertsson
- 3D. Grétarsson
- 16S. Þórðarson
- 4V. Pálsson
- 12H. Valdimarsson
Estonia
5-3-2- 9Karel Mustmaa
- 11M. Ainsalu
- 4M. Käit
- 20M. Poom
- 10K. Palumets
- 19M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 18K. Mets
- 2M. Kuusk
- 3M. Paskotši
- 6R. Peetson
- 1K. Hein
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iceland have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Estonia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 0-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Iceland wins, 1 draw, 0 Estonia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Iceland score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estonia score 1.0 and concede 1.8.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Estonia | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iceland sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (8 points from 4 matches) and Estonia sit 2nd (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
A question about Iceland vs Estonia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy