Iceland vs Estonia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Iceland the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Estonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iceland vs Estonia?
Iceland starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,469 vs 1,350).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iceland have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Estonia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda(away) | 0-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Iceland win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Estonia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Iceland score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estonia score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Estonia | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iceland vs Estonia?
- The Footlab model makes Iceland the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Estonia.
- Where and when is Iceland vs Estonia played?
- Iceland vs Estonia is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.